supplement to 2009 tricountry yearbook re potential new idmysg tripoints

pursuant to the 2008 icj malaysia singapore decision

the registry has reviewed the probabilities & prospects for 2 new idmysg territorial sea tripoints that could emerge just east of pedra branca 

out of future 3way maritime boundary negotiations

these hypothetical tripoints might be called idmysg3 & idmysg4

or idmysgee & idmysgeee

reading from west to east

so as to distinguish them 

both from each other

& from the more obvious but also still only hypothetical pair of idmysg territorial sea trijunctions in the straits of singapore

which have long been referred to as idmysgw & idmysge 

or idmysg1 & idmysg2

& are already fully recognized by the registry as entirely probable eventualities

the new tripoints if any

since there is a considerable probability that these will never actually emerge

as well as a minor probability that they will emerge rather as a single trinational quadripoint 

idmysgmy   

would increase the present official united nations trijunction total from 176 to 178 

or to 177 if a quadripoint

the registry sees fit to acknowledge all these probabilities since it cannot ignore their possibility

but it does not yet take them seriously enough to revise its official world total count

even tho several hypothetical trijunction probabilities are presently included in this count

indeed inclusion within or exclusion from the registry is simply a function of the degree of likelihood of any particular trinational territorial conjunction actually occurring

& the registry views the emergence of these potential new tripoints 

or quadripoint 

as unlikely for 2 reasons

unlikely first because tripartite negotiations await & depend on several nagging bipartite negotiations & disputes

all of which could drag on for a long time yet

& 

unlikely again because any such negotiations 

if they ever do get started in earnest

are practically bound to be so complex & so hard nosed

& the hypothetical singaporean entitlement within them so small 

that a prolonged stalemate would be the likeliest outcome 

if indeed the singaporean seas are not completely locked by the negotiation itself within malaysian seas 

without ever gaining even a single point of contact with indonesian seas

of particular value in these assessments was

Moving Beyond Disputes Over Island Sovereignty: ICJ Decision Sets Stage for Maritime Boundary Delimitation in the Singapore Strait 
Authors: Robert Beckman; Clive Schofield 
in 
Ocean Development & International Law, Volume 40 Issue 1 2009 
ISSN: 1521-0642 (electronic) 0090-8320 (paper) 
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year 
Subject: Shipping & Maritime Law; 
Publisher: Taylor & Francis 
DOI: 10.1080/00908320802631551

also 

the following private comment on the judgment from the worlds leading boundary authority

Would you like to make a small wager that 
Singapore does not prosper significantly from 
the judgement.

Malaysia and Indonesia are 
experienced negotiators.  And they are unlikely 
to concede that tiny Pedra Branca deserves strict 
lines of equidistance vis-a-vis the long 
coastlines of the large land-masses of Malaysia 
and Singapore.