Thursday, June 4, 2009

supplement to 2009 tricountry yearbook re potential new idmysg tripoints

pursuant to the 2008 icj malaysia singapore decision
the registry has reviewed the probabilities & prospects for 2 new idmysg territorial sea tripoints that could emerge just east of pedra branca 
out of future 3way maritime boundary negotiations


these hypothetical tripoints might be called idmysg3 & idmysg4
or idmysgee & idmysgeee
reading from west to east
so as to distinguish them 
both from each other
& from the more obvious but also still only hypothetical pair of idmysg territorial sea trijunctions in the straits of singapore
which have long been referred to as idmysgw & idmysge 
or idmysg1 & idmysg2
& are already fully recognized by the registry as entirely probable eventualities

the new tripoints if any
since there is a considerable probability that these will never actually emerge
as well as a minor probability that they will emerge rather as a single trinational quadripoint 
idmysgmy   
would increase the present official united nations trijunction total from 176 to 178 
or to 177 if a quadripoint

the registry sees fit to acknowledge all these probabilities since it cannot ignore their possibility
but it does not yet take them seriously enough to revise its official world total count
even tho several hypothetical trijunction probabilities are presently included in this count

indeed inclusion within or exclusion from the registry is simply a function of the degree of likelihood of any particular trinational territorial conjunction actually occurring

& the registry views the emergence of these potential new tripoints 
or quadripoint 
as unlikely for 2 reasons

unlikely first because tripartite negotiations await & depend on several nagging bipartite negotiations & disputes
all of which could drag on for a long time yet
unlikely again because any such negotiations 
if they ever do get started in earnest
are practically bound to be so complex & so hard nosed
& the hypothetical singaporean entitlement within them so small 
that a prolonged stalemate would be the likeliest outcome 
if indeed the singaporean seas are not completely locked by the negotiation itself within malaysian seas 
without ever gaining even a single point of contact with indonesian seas


of particular value in these assessments was
Moving Beyond Disputes Over Island Sovereignty: ICJ Decision Sets Stage for Maritime Boundary Delimitation in the Singapore Strait 
Authors: Robert Beckman; Clive Schofield 
in 
Ocean Development & International Law, Volume 40 Issue 1 2009 
ISSN: 1521-0642 (electronic) 0090-8320 (paper) 
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year 
Subject: Shipping & Maritime Law
Publisher: Taylor & Francis 
DOI: 10.1080/00908320802631551


also 
the following private comment on the judgment from the worlds leading boundary authority

Would you like to make a small wager that 
Singapore does not prosper significantly from 
the judgement.

Malaysia and Indonesia are 
experienced negotiators.  And they are unlikely 
to concede that tiny Pedra Branca deserves strict 
lines of equidistance vis-a-vis the long 
coastlines of the large land-masses of Malaysia 
and Singapore.